Investment Strategy & Financial Economics
Predictive Analytics
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Thought Leadership
The institute is recognized as one of the few think tanks that
provided an early warning of the financial crisis and great
recession of 2008. When mainstream economists were forecasting
strong economic growth and stock market gains, the institute
published a working paper in 2006 warning about several economic
risks in the decade of 2007 to 2017. The paper warned about the housing bubble, rising debt, and other
strategic risks. The institute also accurately
forecasted the bottom of
the stock markets in 2009 and the recovery in 2010-2011. To learn more,
please visit
summary of
successful predictions. For independent industry
acknowledgement, please see the following media and research
excerpts.
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Industry Recognition
(Note: some excerpts are translated into
English from their native language)
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What May and Can Be Forecasted?
Dr. Bernanke (Federal
Reserve Chairman) indicated that the economic models used at the Fed
were little better than random... 97% of economists surveyed by the
Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia in November 2007 forecasted a
positive growth rate for 2008...Between mid-2006 and early 2007 Med
Jones of the International Institute of Management published a
series of papers in which he argued that economic growth was less
sustainable than commonly thought, fueled by household debt and a
housing bubble. In March 2007, he indicated to Reuters ...stock
market sell off. In early 2009, he also accurately predicted the
bottom of the recession and anticipated modest recoveries in 2010
and early 2011...Third, and most importantly, with the exception of
Med Jones, the three other forecasters, lack unblemished forecasting
record (of the economic crisis and recovery).
Rational Investing Book
(page 61-63) Columbia
University Press Hugues Langlois, Professor of Finance at HEC
Paris Asset Pricing and Investment Management Research
Jacques Lussier, Chief Investment Strategist, Desjardins Global
Asset Management - A $74.8 Billion Asset Management Firm (USA)

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The Smarter Investor: Does Stock Forecasting Work?
"Top economists and investors alike failed to see it (financial
crisis) coming...(George Soros...Warren Buffett.. Ben Bernanke..
Alan Greenspan.. Paul Volcker..) But just when you think that such
foresight is outside the reach of common man, some prognosticator
emerges with a specific contrarian view and then with eerie accuracy
hits the nail on the head. Take for instance, the small group of
esteemed economists and financial managers that called the housing
crisis.....Then there is Med Jones, the president of the
International Institute of Management... Although Jones is less
known, he turned out to be the most accurate in predicting many of
the downturn’s details."
Steve Beck US News & World Report
Venture Capitalist, Board Member (Nasdaq:BIDU) $58 Billion
Market Cap (USA)

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Book: Bubbles,
Booms and Busts "..A prescient prediction...Yones said: It is
true that the US economy grew at 3.5 percent rate in 4th quarter of
2006, but the economic real growth is much less than advertised.
Since 2001, economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid
increases in asset prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer
debt rather than development projects, which results in
non-sustainable and unhealthy (debt-driven) growth...Many Americans
refinanced their homes during the real-estate boom to pay for living
expenses. With the expected housing bubble bust (declining housing
values), Americans could lose a significant part of their savings"
The Rise and Fall of Financial Markets Donald Rapp, PhD
(USA)

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Congress Has Guaranteed The Secular
Bear Market Is Not Over. On the historic side, the
secular bear markets of the last 120 years lasted an average of 17
years. In warning of a secular bear market being imminent in 1999,
Warren Buffett also spoke of 17 years, saying, “The next 17 years
will be quite unlike the last 17 years. It might not look much
better than the dismal 1965-1982 period.”...Med Jones, economist at
the International Institute of Management, was not talking about
secular bear markets in his reference to 2017 in his 2006 academic
study ‘U.S. Economic Risks 2007-2017’, but said. “The next decade is
probably the most critical for U.S. socio-economic prosperity.”
Sy Harding President Asset Management Research Corporation
Author "Riding the Bear"

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Campden Wealth Management What
did he tell the world's wealthiest families in Geneva?
(Switzerland)

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Follow
The Doomsayers? Often economists simply get it wrong. One of the
financial experts reviewed in the research, who seems to more
consistently and accurately forecast economic events, is called Med
Jones.(He says) "The truth is that when people invest on Wall
Street, they are essentially making bets and guesstimates about the
future."
Simon Danaher BNP Paribas Securities Services
(France)

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The Financial Crisis in Historical
Respective Med Jones, the American expert who predicted the
financial crisis and for years warned about US uncontrolled public
and consumer debt.
Research Paper Claus Norbjerg Sondergaard
Copenhagen Business School (Denmark)

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A
Paradigm for Your Thoughts A Kuhnian Analysis of
Expertise Upon whose advice should we act and whose should we steer
clear of? This is an old problem going back to Ancient Greece,
found in the Platonic dialogue Charmides. Even if our non-expert had
been vigilant enough to find those “pro-financial collapse”
arguments such as Keen (1995), Baker (2002), or Jones (2006), all
these authorities cite different causes, effects, ranges of time,
and arrived at their conclusions by different methodologies.
Professor Dr. Ben Trubody History, Religion,
Philosophy and Ethics University of Gloucestershire (United
Kingdom)

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Global
Economic Forecast "Noted financial wizard...
He is among the few experts who warned about the global
financial crisis in 2008. His predictions were the most accurate and
comprehensive among the experts who warned about the crisis...It was indeed one of the best
analysis I have read about the global economy in my 23 years as
journalist"
Srinivasan L, Chief Reporter Daily Tribune
(Bahrain)

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Economic Predictions
Med Jones
provided Best Economic Predictions" Mihai Banita Money TV
(Romania)

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The Solution to all ills? Simple:
Reset the system
The solution to the current sovereign debt crisis and the
currency crises is there...'there needs to be a
political and economic reset on a global scale". To say in an
exclusive interview with Wall Street Italy is Med Jones, IIM's
financial consultant who was among those able to predict the
financial crisis that hit the United States three years ago. This
means that all world leaders - including enemies, without exception
- should sit around a table and agree to make concessions to the
indebted countries and restructure the entire economy.... This is the only way to start a new era of prosperity
and profitable socio-economic exchange. "Think about it - explains
Jones, a market observer and a great connoisseur of socio- economic
issues -" is certainly a better alternative to currency wars,
international hostilities and the persistent and increasing
risks of global socio-economic shocks... US is surely "a" place to invest in 2011... US remains the world largest economy and the leading
global trading partner for many countries. Despite the financial
crisis and the deficit spending, confidence in the US economy is
still higher than many countries around the world. .. A common
mistake is that of investing in one country or the other based on
macroeconomic outlook. Although every investor should take the
global economic outlook into consideration when they pick an asset,
the valuation of an asset can outweigh the general economic
condition. In fact an investor can pick a stock that preform better
in any economic conditions including inflation. The biggest mistake
that most investment managers make is to (not) look for valuable
opportunities, simply because the media is negative about one
country or sector. For example, the real estate market in the US is
a golden opportunity for long-term investors. To be more specific,
you can buy a foreclosed house of a medium size at about $ 150,000.
It is about 50% less than it was sold in 2008 and you can finance it
at incredibly low rate.
Daniele Chicca, Editor-in-Chief Wall Street Italia (Italy)

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Economic Prediction from Horse's Mouth: The US Economic Recovery
The three most common questions are: How did we get here? Why did
our top experts miss it? When do you think the economy will recover:
“The short answers are that spending on credit without enough
productions to pay it back (is how we got here). Groupthink mind-set
(is why top experts missed it). We’ll experience more volatility in
2009 on the way to the bottom of the correction cycle. A modest
recovery will start in 2010/2011 (is the answer to when the economy
will recover.)
Carol Carter, Award-winning Business Journalist, Atlanta
Business Chronicle allbusiness.com (USA)

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Real
Estate Outlook 2010 One of
the few people who saw the US economic crisis coming, International
Institute of Management President Med Yones, is now predicting that
the economy will begin to recover in 2010. The IIM is not a fan of
expensive stimulus packages. It instead favors job creation through
funding for small businesses, The most cost effective and quickest
method to stimulate the U.S. economy is to support job creation
through US small businesses and innovation development. U.S. Census
Bureau statistics show that 98 percent of all U.S. firms have less
than 100 employees. These 27 million small businesses create over 85
percent of all new jobs and employ over 56 percent of all private
sector workers. The main focus of development programs should be
innovation development, export and employment support. This solution
would be a much less burden on the taxpayers; it can be implemented
without too much new legislation, and would have a much faster
positive impact on the economy. [A sustainable economic recovery
policy]
Paul Jones, Keller Williams St.
George Real Estate
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Economic Recovery If there is a financial guru in
the United States, it would have to be Med Yones, president of the
International Institute of Management. He is one of the few experts
who predicted the nation’s current economic downturn. In fact his
economic predictions are generally considered to be the most
accurate. What does he foresee in his crystal ball for 2010?
Patricia C. Ress Gazette Reporter (USA)
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"Predicted the US economic crisis" World Finance Magazine
(UK)

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Insight Into a Financial Crisis
"Investment adviser predicted the U.S. real estate collapse"
Claire Compton The Prague Post (Czech Republic)

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Economic Recovery Outlook
You may not be familiar with Med Yones, IIM’s president, but he’s
one of the naysayers that waved a lot of red warning flags back in
2007 about the economic glide path we were on as a nation and as a
global community...
Yones also believes most economic and
financial experts missed the crisis because of the “groupthink
mindset”, plus the lack of information and misinformation in the
mainstream media. “In such environment, few have the insight and the
courage to tell it as it is, and risk being ridiculed by other
industry experts,” he says...
Very useful insight into how we got into
this mess in the first place...Information leads to knowledge and
knowledge, as we all know, is power. So maybe some of Yones’
projections here be put to good use...
Yones says the general economic decline
cycle will bottom in 2009 and we could see stability sometime late
2009 or early 2010, then we will be back to modest recovery in late
2010 or early 2011. However, the real estate, construction and
financial Industries will bottom out in 2010, the recovery could
start in 2011. “The combination of some of the counterproductive
policies and bad news, can further damage the investors' confidence,
thus sending the economy in downward spiral...“This would be the
worst case scenario, however, in our opinion, the new administration
has the knowledge and the tools to mitigate those risks..
Sean Kilcarr Senior Editor FO Magazine
(USA)
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STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR THE US ECONOMY The actual
U.S. economic growth is much less than advertised. Since 2001,
economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid increases in asset
prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer debt rather than
spending on business investments and new income generation projects,
this brings unsustainable and unhealthy growth.... The investors are
not aware of the highly inflated asset prices, especially the
mortgage-backed securities promoted by Wall Street as high-quality
financial instruments, while in fact they are very high risk
securities. Most investors base their investment on future
expectations (speculation) rather than fundamental financial
health... In IIM's opinion, the conditions for a crash were not met
in 2006, however, attention must be paid early to avoid coming
closer to the tipping point. The more the current Administration is
waiting to make a change, the stronger the downward momentum and the
more the inertia will be to reverse the direction. In other words,
the socioeconomic and political pains that will appear from the
necessary reforms will be much more painful.
Scientific Papers: Fedorova M.N.
Specialty "State and municipal management" Scientific adviser:
AB Nisilevich Ministry of Education and Science of The Russian
Federation Moscow State University Economics, Statistics And
Informatics (MESI) Institute Of Law (Russia)
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The Economic Recovery
"Investing in innovation industries is the only sustainable way out
of the crisis, said Med Yones, one of the few experts who predicted
the economic crisis.
Jana Gavare Daily Business Magazine
(Latvia)

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Economic News
"Economic expert
promises speedy global recovery'" Eugenia Vlasova, Journalist
Internovosti Russian News Agency (Russia)

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Independent News Independent
thinker.. warned us about the crisis.. a solution to the crisis.
Gary Anthony Ramsay President, NY Association of Black
Journalists (USA)

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Lunch
with a Leader Med Jones, one of the few
economists to predict the Great Recession of 2008.
Paul Crompton, Journalist Al Arabiya News Channel
(Saudi Arabia)

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The
Economic Crisis: Changed everything without changing anything
The
answer to the first question is related to one of the basic problems
of economists: the impossibility to create models that predict the
evolutions of the economy... It should be noted, however, that there
have been people who have warned about the danger of a crisis, among
them Med Jones...
Andreea
Irimia The Christian Review Journal semneletimpului.ro (Romania)

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Economic Prophets.. Before
the "recession" entered the everyday speech of the broadest mass...
Med Jones, the president of the International Institute of Management
warned about the crisis
Business News SLOBODNA DALMACIJA
Slobodnadalmacija.hr (Croatia)

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Economic Predictions Research
Project "Every decade or so, a few geniuses are discovered. For
years they work hard trying to solve incredibly complex problems,
they labor in relative obscurity until they achieve great results.
At first they are ignored, dismissed or ridiculed by their peers,
later they are recognized for their exceptional abilities and
achievements. These exceptional experts saw what most of the world
failed to see".
Angela Mokovich Wall Street Economists
(USA)

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Market
Beat If the Fed raises
interest rates, while other central banks maintain lower or lower
interest rates, the risk of capital outflow from these countries to
the US will increase, causing a significant fall in the stock
markets of these countries. (Says Med Jones)
Kostas Ioannidis Economy and Market
Columnist Naftemporiki.gr (Greece)

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US Stock Market > Research Analysis
Now, in a world where high-frequency trading and derivative
arbitrage are rampant, even experienced investors can hardly be
rational, let alone know when to buy, hold and sell. This is why too
many Wall Street experts are giving up piles of contradictory
opinions. The current prediction science and prediction models have
not yet been developed to predict the extent of the market's
performance in the next month or the next quarter... This year,
investors worried about the consequences of China, oil prices,
terrorist attacks, the Brexit vote, and the US presidential
election. But few people have noticed the risks in the foreign
exchange market and options market. However, if the Fed raises
interest rates when other central banks decide to maintain low
interest rates, this will increase the capital outflow from other
countries to the United States, causing the stocks of these
countries to fall sharply. Forex traders will switch to short the
currencies of these countries and hedge funds will short these
stocks. But what if the Fed decides to cut interest rates? This will
increase the risk of currency warfare because the United States must
remain competitive in international exports. In price wars, either
crude oil or money, all participants will suffer heavy losses. The
central bank is now in the middle of a bad choice and another worse
alternative. If the time and scale of their actions cannot be fully
calibrated and consistent, you can expect what kind of turmoil will
occur in the global financial market. In the trade war, it
will take a long time for the US financial market to be negatively
affected. The major companies in the S&P 500 have large export
earnings, so that the US stock market and economy will not escape in
this crisis. (Says Med Jones)
China Finance Online jrj.com.cn (NASDAQ:
JRJC) The Leading Financial Portal In China (China)

Related Pages:
For bio and media information,
please visit Med Jones' Bio page
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Notes:
Role, Purpose and Conflict of Interest:
The Institute is a think tank and
education organization. Our opinion is incidental to our
profession. We are not an investment advisory or brokerage
firm. We do not seek outside investments. We do not manage
external assets. We do not function as a rating agency.
We do not accept compensation from companies for review or
rating purposes. The expressed opinions should not be considered
as an endorsement for or against any asset, company, investment firm,
industry or an economy.
Any recommendation for or against any asset or a strategy
is done for an educational purpose only. Markets are hyper-dynamic, we cannot and do
not time the stock market. Our forecasts continuously change
with changing data; they are used as an input to complex risk
management and valuation decision models. Despite past success
in economic forecasting and research portfolio designs, we do
not provide any guarantee for future forecasts or performance.
To learn more about the limitations
of our predictive analytics and forecasts, please visit the
corrections and update section of the
U.S. Economics Risks and Strategies paper
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Contact Information:
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