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Investment Strategy & Financial Economics

Predictive Analytics

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The institute is recognized as one of the few think tanks that provided an early warning of the financial crisis and great recession of 2008. When mainstream economists were forecasting strong economic growth and stock market gains, the institute published a working paper in 2006 warning about several economic risks in the decade of 2007 to 2017. The paper warned about the housing bubble, rising debt, and other strategic risks. The institute also accurately forecasted the bottom of the stock market in 2009 and the recovery in 2010-2011. In 2016, the institute published another article warning about currency crisis in emerging markets with hedge funds shorting the currencies of several countries. In 2021, the institute warned its clients about 2022's severe S&P correction and NASDAQ bear market, along with the crash of many of the high-flying tech stocks, higher inflation risk, and elevated probability of a Fed mistake leading to a slowing economy in 2022 and a higher recession risk in 2023. The institute also warned about unreported brewing private equity loans, contagious ETFs and derivatives risks (CLOs and debt instruments containing significant percentage of BBB and lower credit ratings) in the financial markets that may materialize gradually starting in 2022 (up to ~$1.2 Trillion of financial instruments are at risk of 20-50% losses, followed by similar losses for up to ~$1.6 Trillion in 2023 and up to ~$1.5 Trillion in 2024. If the Fed and central bankers do not address these risks in a timely manner, many US and international investors could lose 20-50% of the value of their investments. For independent industry acknowledgement, please see the following media, investment, and academic excerpts.

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Industry Recognition

(Note: some excerpts are translated into English from their native language)

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What May and Can Be Forecasted?
Dr. Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) indicated that the economic models used at the Fed were little better than random... 97% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia in November 2007 forecasted a positive growth rate for 2008...Between mid-2006 and early 2007 Med Jones of the International Institute of Management published a series of papers in which he argued that economic growth was less sustainable than commonly thought, fueled by household debt and a housing bubble. In March 2007, he indicated to Reuters ...stock market sell off. In early 2009, he also accurately predicted the bottom of the recession and anticipated modest recoveries in 2010 and early 2011...Third, and most importantly, with the exception of Med Jones, the three other forecasters [Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini, and Peter Schiff], lack unblemished forecasting record.

Rational Investing Book (page 61-63)
Columbia University Press
Hugues Langlois, Professor of Finance at HEC Paris
Asset Pricing and Investment Management Research 
Jacques Lussier, Chief Investment Strategist, Desjardins Global Asset Management - A $74.8 Billion Asset Management Firm
(USA)

   <- click on book logo for the citation

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The Smarter Investor: Does Stock Forecasting Work?
"Top economists and investors alike failed to see it (financial crisis) coming...(George Soros...Warren Buffett.. Ben Bernanke.. Alan Greenspan.. Paul Volcker..) But just when you think that such foresight is outside the reach of common man, some prognosticator emerges with a specific contrarian view and then with eerie accuracy hits the nail on the head. Take for instance, the small group of esteemed economists and financial managers that called the housing crisis.....Then there is Med Jones, the president of the International Institute of Management... Although Jones is less known, he turned out to be the most accurate in predicting many of the downturn's details."

Steve Beck
US News & World Report
Venture Capitalist, Board Member (Nasdaq:BIDU) $58 Billion Market Cap
(USA)

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Book: Bubbles, Booms and Busts
"..A prescient prediction...Yones said: It is true that the US economy grew at 3.5 percent rate in 4th quarter of 2006, but the economic real growth is much less than advertised. Since 2001, economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid increases in asset prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer debt rather than development projects, which results in non-sustainable and unhealthy (debt-driven) growth...Many Americans refinanced their homes during the real-estate boom to pay for living expenses. With the expected housing bubble bust (declining housing values), Americans could lose a significant part of their savings"

The Rise and Fall of Financial Markets
Donald Rapp, PhD
(USA)

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Congress Has Guaranteed The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over.
On the historic side, the secular bear markets of the last 120 years lasted an average of 17 years. In warning of a secular bear market being imminent in 1999, Warren Buffett also spoke of 17 years, saying, The next 17 years will be quite unlike the last 17 years. It might not look much better than the dismal 1965-1982 period. ...Med Jones, economist at the International Institute of Management, was not talking about secular bear markets in his reference to 2017 in his 2006 academic study U.S. Economic Risks 2007-2017 , but said. The next decade is probably the most critical for U.S. socio-economic prosperity.

Sy Harding President
Asset Management Research Corporation
Author "Riding the Bear"

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The wild card event: Discursive, epistemic and practical aspects of uncertainty being tamed
The [failure to forecast] might be due to lack of knowledge or sophisticated technology for anticipating an event.... As a result of this type of unawareness, the consequences of not approaching such issues properly might very likely manifest themselves as wild cards (riots, political assassinations, domestic terrorism, fascists winning elections, etc.)....For instance, prior to the [Financial] Crisis of 2008, there were people who had been warning about what might have come. Among these were Dean Baker, Med Jones, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Shiff... Their analyses were neglected by conventional wisdom of mainstream economics...Finally, the notion of a wild card event is at the heart of recent developments in the futures studies realm but it is also quite functional for the productivity and profitability of certain economic sectors. Last but not least, it proved to be crucial for the reproduction of political power.

Blagovesta Nikolova
Department of Social Theories, Strategies and Prognoses
Institute for the Study of Societies and Knowledge
Time & Society Journal - Sage Research Publications

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Could the 2008 financial crisis have been foreseen and prevented?
The crisis of 2008 was one of the worst. Starting with the burst of the American housing bubble to the failure of several large US financial firms, most notably Lehman Brothers....Costing the US government roughly $10 trillion to bail out banks resulting in an increase of budget deficit. Creating family distress due to loss of jobs, homes and wealth. According to Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, we all misjudged the risks involved everyone missed it academia, the Federal Reserve, all regulators (Miller and Zumbrun) when discussing the 2008 financial crisis. Greenspan view that we all misjudged the risks involved can be held valid however that claim that everyone missed it is untrue. The 2008 financial crises was foreseen despite the difficulty of economic forecasting but it could have not been prevented because of information and power asymmetries that resulted from the system in place, human behaviour and the lack of a leading authority. .....several credible early warnings and evidence outlining the risks where identified and documented by economist Dean Baker in 2005, strategy expert Med Jones in 2006 and investment manager Peter Schiff also in 2006... However, the most notable and cherished by the media for having foreseen the crisis is Nourie Roubin, who wrote an IMF position paper on the crisis in 2007 when the US subprime mortgage collapsed. However, Roubin like many others predicted the crisis as it was already unfolding. An International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive summery states that the crisis had already began in August 2007. Also, due to lack of proper documentation, Roubin and others will be discredited from having foreseen the crisis for time being. Leaving the focus on the three economists above mentioned.

Carolina Merighi
International Political Economy
Universita Bocconi

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Pluralism and Economics Today
It is, however, unfair to argue that Mainstream Economics couldn t have seen it coming. A reasonably large number of senior economists- including NourielRoubini, Raghuram Rajan, Dean Baker, Med Jones and Peter Schiff- had issued warnings in advance, using tools not beyond neoclassical methodology. A more relevant critique is that many mainstream economists were compromised in their ability to use the tools of neoclassical economics appropriately by the political and financial realities of their senior positions in policy making roles....Further issues plaguing the field itself include the capture of the Economics...has been highlighted in recent times by members of the Economics fraternity themselves. Zingales 2013 study confirms the nexus that exists between academics, businesses, the State and eminent publications...Incumbent economics professors who espouse orthodoxy also control the degrees of their graduate students- the result of course, is Graduate Students who are forced to conform (Zingales 2013).

Aniket Baksy and Nidhi Singh
Qrius (formerly, The Indian Economist)

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Campden Wealth Management
What did he tell the world's wealthiest families in Geneva?

(Switzerland)

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Follow The Doomsayers?
Often economists simply get it wrong. One of the financial experts reviewed in the research, who seems to more consistently and accurately forecast economic events, is called Med Jones.(He says) "The truth is that when people invest on Wall Street, they are essentially making bets and guesstimates about the future."

Simon Danaher
BNP Paribas Securities Services
(France)

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The Financial Crisis in Historical Respective
Med Jones, the American expert who predicted the financial crisis and for years warned about US uncontrolled public and consumer debt.

Research Paper
Claus Norbjerg Sondergaard
Copenhagen Business School
(Denmark)

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 A Paradigm for Your Thoughts
A Kuhnian Analysis of Expertise Upon whose advice should we act and whose should we steer clear of? This is an old problem going back to  Ancient Greece, found in the Platonic dialogue Charmides. Even if our non-expert had been vigilant enough to find those pro-financial collapse arguments such as Keen (1995), Baker (2002), or Jones (2006), all these authorities cite different causes, effects, ranges of time, and arrived at their conclusions by different methodologies.

Professor Dr. Ben Trubody History, Religion, Philosophy and Ethics University of Gloucestershire
(United Kingdom)

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Global Economic Forecast
"Noted financial wizard... He is among the few experts  who warned about the global financial crisis in 2008. His predictions were the most accurate and comprehensive among the experts who warned about the crisis...It was indeed one of the best analysis I have read about the global economy in my 23 years as journalist"

Srinivasan L, Chief Reporter
Daily Tribune
(Bahrain)

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Economic Predictions
Med Jones provided Best Economic Predictions"
Mihai Banita
Money TV
(Romania)

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The Solution to all ills? Simple: Reset the system
The solution to the current sovereign debt crisis and the currency crises is there...'there needs to be a political and economic reset on a global scale". To say in an exclusive interview with Wall Street Italy is Med Jones, IIM's financial consultant who was among those able to predict the financial crisis that hit the United States three years ago. This means that all world leaders - including enemies, without exception - should sit around a table and agree to make concessions to the indebted countries and restructure the entire economy.... This is the only way to start a new era of prosperity and profitable socio-economic exchange. "Think about it - explains Jones, a market observer and a great connoisseur of socio- economic issues -" is certainly a better alternative to currency wars, international hostilities and the persistent and increasing risks of global socio-economic shocks... US is surely "a" place to invest in 2011... US remains the world largest economy and the leading global trading partner for many countries. Despite the financial crisis and the deficit spending, confidence in the US economy is still higher than many countries around the world. .. A common mistake is that of investing in one country or the other based on macroeconomic outlook. Although every investor should take the global economic outlook into consideration when they pick an asset, the valuation of an asset can outweigh the general economic condition. In fact an investor can pick a stock that preform better in any economic conditions including inflation. The biggest mistake that most investment managers make is to (not) look for valuable opportunities, simply because the media is negative about one country or sector. For example, the real estate market in the US is a golden opportunity for long-term investors. To be more specific, you can buy a foreclosed house of a medium size at about $ 150,000. It is about 50% less than it was sold in 2008 and you can finance it at incredibly low rate.

Daniele Chicca, Editor-in-Chief
Wall Street Italia
(Italy)

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Economic Prediction from Horse's Mouth: The US Economic Recovery
The three most common questions are: How did we get here? Why did our top experts miss it? When do you think the economy will recover: The short answers are that spending on credit without enough productions to pay it back (is how we got here). Groupthink mind-set (is why top experts missed it). We ll experience more volatility in 2009 on the way to the bottom of the correction cycle. A modest recovery will start in 2010/2011 (is the answer to when the economy will recover.)

Carol Carter, Award-winning Business Journalist, 
Atlanta Business Chronicle
allbusiness.com 
(USA)

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Real Estate Outlook 2010
One of the few people who saw the US economic crisis coming, International Institute of Management President Med Yones, is now predicting that the economy will begin to recover in 2010. The IIM is not a fan of expensive stimulus packages. It instead favors job creation through funding for small businesses, The most cost effective and quickest method to stimulate the U.S. economy is to support job creation through US small businesses and innovation development. U.S. Census Bureau statistics show that 98 percent of all U.S. firms have less than 100 employees. These 27 million small businesses create over 85 percent of all new jobs and employ over 56 percent of all private sector workers. The main focus of development programs should be innovation development, export and employment support. This solution would be a much less burden on the taxpayers; it can be implemented without too much new legislation, and would have a much faster positive impact on the economy. [A sustainable economic recovery policy]

Paul Jones, Keller Williams
St. George Real Estate

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Economic Recovery
If there is a financial guru in the United States, it would have to be Med Yones, president of the International Institute of Management. He is one of the few experts who predicted the nation's current economic downturn. In fact his economic predictions are generally considered to be the most accurate. What does he foresee in his crystal ball for 2010? 

Patricia C. Ress
Gazette Reporter
(USA)

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"Predicted the US economic crisis"
World Finance Magazine
(UK)

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Insight Into a Financial Crisis
"Investment adviser predicted the U.S. real estate collapse"

Claire Compton
The Prague Post
(Czech Republic)

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Economic Recovery Outlook
You may not be familiar with Med Yones, IIM's president, but he's one of the naysayers that waved a lot of red warning flags back in 2007 about the economic glide path we were on as a nation and as a global community...

Yones also believes most economic and financial experts missed the crisis because of the groupthink mindset , plus the lack of information and misinformation in the mainstream media. In such environment, few have the insight and the courage to tell it as it is, and risk being ridiculed by other industry experts, he says...

Very useful insight into how we got into this mess in the first place...Information leads to knowledge and knowledge, as we all know, is power. So maybe some of Yones projections here be put to good use...

Yones says the general economic decline cycle will bottom in 2009 and we could see stability sometime late 2009 or early 2010, then we will be back to modest recovery in late 2010 or early 2011. However, the real estate, construction and financial Industries will bottom out in 2010, the recovery could start in 2011. The combination of some of the counterproductive policies and bad news, can further damage the investors' confidence, thus sending the economy in downward spiral... This would be the worst case scenario, however, in our opinion, the new administration has the knowledge and the tools to mitigate those risks..
 
Sean Kilcarr Senior Editor
FO Magazine
(USA)

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STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR THE US ECONOMY
The actual U.S. economic growth is much less than advertised. Since 2001, economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid increases in asset prices (housing bubble) and expanding consumer debt rather than spending on business investments and new income generation projects, this brings unsustainable and unhealthy growth.... The investors are not aware of the highly inflated asset prices, especially the mortgage-backed securities promoted by Wall Street as high-quality financial instruments, while in fact they are very high risk securities. Most investors base their investment on future expectations (speculation) rather than fundamental financial health... In IIM's opinion, the conditions for a crash were not met in 2006, however, attention must be paid early to avoid coming closer to the tipping point. The more the current Administration is waiting to make a change, the stronger the downward momentum and the more the inertia will be to reverse the direction. In other words, the socioeconomic and political pains that will appear from the necessary reforms will be much more painful.

Scientific Papers:
Fedorova M.N. Specialty "State and municipal management"
Scientific adviser: AB Nisilevich
Ministry of Education and Science of The Russian Federation
Moscow State University Economics, Statistics And Informatics (MESI) Institute Of Law
(Russia)

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The Economic Recovery
"Investing in innovation industries is the only sustainable way out of the crisis, said Med Yones, one of the few experts who predicted the economic crisis.

Jana Gavare
Daily Business Magazine
(Latvia)

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Economic News

"Economic expert promises speedy global recovery'"
Eugenia Vlasova, Journalist
Internovosti Russian News Agency
(Russia)

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Independent News
Independent thinker.. warned us about the crisis.. a solution to the crisis.
Gary Anthony Ramsay
President, NY Association of Black Journalists
(USA)

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Lunch with a Leader
Med Jones, one of the few economists to predict the Great Recession of 2008.

Paul Crompton, Journalist
Al Arabiya News Channel
(Saudi Arabia)

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The Economic Crisis: Changed everything without changing anything
The answer to the first question is related to one of the basic problems of economists: the impossibility to create models that predict the evolutions of the economy... It should be noted, however, that there have been people who have warned about the danger of a crisis, among them Med Jones...

Andreea Irimia
The Christian Review Journal
semneletimpului.ro
(Romania)

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Economic Prophets..
Before the "recession" entered the everyday speech of the broadest mass... Med Jones, the president of the International Institute of Management warned about the crisis

Business News
SLOBODNA DALMACIJA
Slobodnadalmacija.hr
(Croatia)

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Economic Predictions Research Project
"Every decade or so, a few geniuses are discovered. For years they work hard trying to solve incredibly complex problems, they labor in relative obscurity until they achieve great results. At first they are ignored, dismissed or ridiculed by their peers, later they are recognized for their exceptional abilities and achievements. These exceptional experts saw what most of the world failed to see".

Angela Mokovich
Wall Street Economists
(USA)

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Market Beat
If the Fed raises interest rates, while other central banks maintain lower or lower interest rates, the risk of capital outflow from these countries to the US will increase, causing a significant fall in the stock markets of these countries.  (Says Med Jones)

Kostas Ioannidis
Economy and Market Columnist
Naftemporiki.gr
(Greece)

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US Stock Market > Research Analysis
Now, in a world where high-frequency trading and derivative arbitrage are rampant, even experienced investors can hardly be rational, let alone know when to buy, hold and sell. This is why too many Wall Street experts are giving up piles of contradictory opinions. The current prediction science and prediction models have not yet been developed to predict the extent of the market's performance in the next month or the next quarter... This year, investors worried about the consequences of China, oil prices, terrorist attacks, the Brexit vote, and the US presidential election. But few people have noticed the risks in the foreign exchange market and options market. However, if the Fed raises interest rates when other central banks decide to maintain low interest rates, this will increase the capital outflow from other countries to the United States, causing the stocks of these countries to fall sharply. Forex traders will switch to short the currencies of these countries and hedge funds will short these stocks. But what if the Fed decides to cut interest rates? This will increase the risk of currency warfare because the United States must remain competitive in international exports. In price wars, either crude oil or money, all participants will suffer heavy losses. The central bank is now in the middle of a bad choice and another worse alternative. If the time and scale of their actions cannot be fully calibrated and consistent, you can expect what kind of turmoil will occur in the global financial market.  In the trade war, it will take a long time for the US financial market to be negatively affected. The major companies in the S&P 500 have large export earnings, so that the US stock market and economy will not escape in this crisis. (Says Med Jones)

China Finance Online
jrj.com.cn (NASDAQ: JRJC)
The Leading Financial Portal In China
(China)

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