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International Institute of Management
Med Jones (Yones)
Selected Opinions, Quotes, and Lessons Learned
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(Disclaimer)
Some of the
opinions expressed on this page do not represent the institute nor
do they represent complete or permanent views of the author on any
topic. If some opinions are shared with other authors, it does not
mean the author subscribes to a certain political or economic
school of thought. The quotes should not be taken out of
context or used for, or against any single person, business or
political entity. The content is shared for educational and
entertainment purposes.
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On Asymmetric Conflicts
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History is
full of examples of smaller powers taking on a much larger power
and winning. We see it in individual conflicts (David vs.
Goliath), law (Hinkley contamination case), business (Google vs.
Yahoo), politics (Obama vs. Clinton) and military (Vietnam vs.
USA). [On asymmetric competitive strategies]
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Status,
size, money, power, reputation, prestige, awards, and
affiliations are all a temporary advantage that can be overcome
by a persistent opponent armed with a true cause, unwavering
will and a smart mind. The more powerful can win some battles,
but with the right strategy the less powerful can win the war.
We learned from the legal case of Robert Kearns vs. Ford Motors
Inc., and later Chrysler Motors that a single creative person
with a lasting stamina and no law degree can take on and win
against a much larger and richer opponent armed with top
lawyers. [On how to win a conflict with asymmetric powers]
On Integrity,
Journalism and Academia
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How to tell
if you are being deceived or manipulated? The following signs
are telltale that someone is trying to corrupt the truth or fool
you: Instead of responding directly to an argument, they attempt
to discredit the source or its motives. They will minimize
the grievance of the opposing party or exaggerate their
offense. They will pull rank or talk qualifications and prior
achievements rather than address the question directly. They
will claim that you cannot equate between them and the opposing
parties, they are exceptional, superior or serving a higher
purpose. They will mention common names or affiliations to
impress you or bring you to their side. They will try to
change the subject and make it about something else. They will
call for the "greater good" or the "higher cause" to justify
oppressing or censoring the their victim. They will attempt to
attack the victim to hide their own mistakes. They blame it on
the system, "everyone else is doing it", they have no other
choice. They will attempt to bribe you directly or indirectly.
They will straight lie and contradict themselves. If you catch
them lying they claim to have misspoke or miscommunicated. If
all fails, they attempt intellectually bully you, by attacking
you to deter from the pursuit of truth on that subject. A
journalist cannot be a successful without a full knowledge of
the tactics of deception, otherwise can s/he become a tool for
the manipulator rather than a guardian of truth. Ask your
intuition, are they playing on your favorable biases, hiding
something or not telling the whole truth.
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We studied
the science of truth and deception carefully. If you want to
know if someone is corrupting the truth or hiding something,
look for one or more of the dozen most common deception tactics.
IIM compiled the following checklist for journalists and truth
investigators: 1. Giving a general answer to a specific
question 2. Using too much information to overload and
distract the enquirer
3.Trying to change the nature of the dispute 4. Attacking
the enquirer to deter from the pursuit of the truth 5. Using
false and/or misleading statements and blaming it on
miscommunication 6. Making up a defense that did not exist at
the time 7. Using inconsistent or contradictory or
hypocritical statements 8. Dodging or evading direct
questions 9. Using selective referencing
10. Omitting material information 11. Pretending to be a
victim or getting offended 12. Ending communication
unilaterally to avoid more difficult questions
Some might
make an honest mistake, but if their communication exhibits two
or more of the above signs, then, they are more likely than not,
trying to corrupt the truth, hide something or fool you.
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The scope
of collusion and cover up of the Boston Church's abuse should
not come as a shock. People in power will go to great lengths to
keep it. The untold story is not the abuse - it is the
corruption of the network of power connecting the church
officials, journalists, lawyers, and others who participated in
burying the story for so long. [On the award-winning "Spotlight"
movie]
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When
academics and politics intersect, it' is usually academic
integrity that suffers. An academic must make a difficult
choice, become a political ideologue or keep an open and
independent mind to protect against bias. Either you are a
politician or an academic, choose one. [On the politics of
academia]
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There is no
lasting power without integrity. You can take short cuts to gain
power, but if you violate integrity, you can never keep it for
long. Once you are caught, you will have to pay dearly and
sometimes from the least expected sources.
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In my
career, I learned not to confuse celebrity with competency or
integrity with ideology. Some of the most famous and idealistic
people are not nearly as competent or as honest as they appear
to be. When the stakes are high, they will more likely corrupt
the truth and rationalize unjust enrichment or power gain at the
expense of others.
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There are
no left or right journalists. There are left and right
propagandists. Journalism, by definition, is independent; its
sole function is to seek the truth, not present or validate
half-truths. Truth or corruption are not exclusive to any single
group. A telltale sign of biased, mentally captured, or corrupt
journalists is overwhelming criticizing one political
party and being silent or apologetic for another for the same
actions. If you want to know which lobby captured a group
of journalists or a media outlet, look at the balance of
coverage, who do they report on, and more importantly who do
they not report on. Unfortunately, in this day and age, the only
way to find the full truth is to read opposing media outlets and
try to distinguish facts from opinions. This is not an easy
task. Smart investors, can see that there is a real business
opportunity for an open and balanced media. They can succeed
only if they reign their own affiliation biases and that is hard
to do. An even better opportunity is to create a media business
that assess the credibility and journalistic integrity of each
political reporter [On journalistic bias]
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How to tell
if a journalist has integrity? Identity, political or
ideological affiliation is never a consideration in their
reporting or censorship. The role of a journalist in the society
is to speak truth to power, not to protect certain powers at the
expense of the truth. [On journalistic integrity]
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The rising
popularity of "fake news" is not due to the Internet, it is more
due to the political bias resulting in the lack of balanced
reporting, integrity and trust in power-connected mainstream
media. The law of media balance dictates that if you censor
opposing points of views in your media, you will create an
opportunity for the rise of another media to restore the
balance, even if that media is unbalanced and riddled with fake
news. Truth cannot be buried for long, it will find a way to
manifest itself in all forms, including arts, fiction and
sometimes even in what they call as "fake news" websites. [On
balanced reporting]
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If you are
open-minded and smart, sometimes, you can see a truth in some
"fake news" and the lies in some "real news". [On true vs. fake
news]
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The sudden
fear of "fake news" on social media has less to do with the
truth and more to do with the control of narratives or capturing
your mind. Media is a tool of power. The powers in control of
mainstream media are losing control to new independent media
sites, and they will do everything they can to prevent the
distribution of that power. They will pretend that they care
about the public interest and the truth; they will find a way to
pressure the executives of the popular social media sites to
censor content and control information under the disguise of
fighting "fake news". They pretend that most people are stupid
and that they are the guardian of truth. However, without open
and equal access to information, there is no truth or real
democracy. If I were to choose between open media polluted with
some fake news vs. controlled media with no fake news, I will
always side with the open media. The power to choose should be
in the hand of the user not the executives of the social media
or the lobby working behind them. If social media executives
repeat the same mistakes of the mainstream media, they will
create an opportunity for a competing media to take away their
subscribers.
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The
powerful elites love people's democracy as long as they are
winning elections, but when the people elect an
anti-establishment outsider, then those people are less
intelligent, less moral, misinformed or manipulated and they
must find away to nullify the election and bring back
their own representatives for the "good" of the country.
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The
powerful elites love free speech and free media as long as they
control the narrative, when the opposition voices become more
popular, then they use the excuse of few extreme fringe voices
to filter and censor critical opposition voices the "poison" and
"misinform" the public opinion.
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If you
think that academia is a shining example of integrity, think
again. No industry is immune to corruption. We have experienced
more corruption of truth, collusion, tribal behavior, and even
academic cartels than the industry would like to admit. [On
Academic Corruption]
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In general,
we have seen some implicit bias in academia to reference certain
sources instead of others; the bias is usually in favor of
celebrity authors, authors at intergovernmental organizations,
certain universities, journals with high impact factors, and
certain academic, political, and other affiliations. This
selective referencing usually comes at the expense of original
sources. Proper enforcement of academic research standards, by
integrity offices and editors may help fix this issue. [On
academic bias]
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The most common technique used by sophisticated plagiarists
to disguise the kidnaping of the work of another author is
to "reverse-engineer" an idea in a paper by citing
individual knowledge elements in other earlier publications,
but leave out the author of that idea. This way, they can
show that they arrived at the same solution on their own and
justify their ill-gotten academic or financial gains. If
they are famous or have a large sponsoring platform, they
might overshadow the original author in the number of
citations and financial credit.
[On plagiarism]
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In our
experience, we have seen how the public is influenced by a
well-orchestrated government lobbying and media campaign,
especially when endorsed by leading academics at
inter-governmental organizations.
On Economics and Economists
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There is no
scientific discipline with so many conflicting views and
opinions like economics. Unlike physical scientists, economists
cannot seem to agree on some of the most fundamental concepts of
economics. They appear unable to distinguish between their
own opinions, biases and facts. Some of them appear to form
political-academic cartels to promote common political interests
and ideologies rather than science. The politically savvy among
them rise to the top and go on to cause a lot of damage, never
taking responsibility for their own mistakes and always blaming
it on other economists, externalities, and schools of thought.
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When I was
young, my parents told me that if you make fun of others, you
might end up like them. So, I never made fun of others, except
for economists. Today, I'm being branded as one. Despite the
heavy cost to my self-esteem, it is still fun to make fun of
them (or us) every now and then.
On Predicting
the Housing Bubble, the Great Recession and Recovery
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Like
others, I have been subject to academic arrogance and ridicule,
there are economists who could not bring themselves to believe
that someone unknown outside their profession with all the
brilliant scholars could have succeeded where they failed. One
reaction I got, "I'm an economist and never heard of him". Now
that is arrogance based on ignorance. To be fair, there
were some open minded economists, who are not burdened by their
egos and groupthink biases. In this profession, you will find
that only a few who will give credit to someone else, it is
simply hard on the ego.
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Do you
wonder why most economists could not predict the economic crisis
of 2008, let alone, solve the most important lingering economic
problems? It is not the lack of intellect, it is the outdated
academic curriculums and decision models. They do not fully
understand some of the most basic units of any economy, namely,
the entrepreneur, the enterprise, investors and investments.
Unfortunately, most economists who advise governments on
economic policies, never started or managed a business in their
life. So, how do you expect them to give proper advice without
real-life knowledge of the complex business decision models,
including managing investments, risks and opportunities. Most
economists are well-versed in theories and statistics, but
unlike engineers and doctors they are not trained to diagnose
the root causes of complex problems, and unlike entrepreneurs
they do not have the level of creative thinking and real-world
problem-solving experience. Solving complex economic problems
requires a neurosurgical precision. Would you choose a medical
theorist who never practiced medicine in real life to operate on
any one's brain?
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Since 2001,
the U.S. economic growth has been largely fueled by rapid
increases in asset prices (housing bubble) and consumer debt,
rather than development projects, which result in
non-sustainable debt-driven growth... Due to the housing bubble
in recent years, U.S. homebuyers took on more debt to buy
overpriced homes, thus reducing share of disposable income. Many
Americans refinanced their homes during the real-estate boom to
pay for living expenses. With the expected housing bubble bust,
Americans could lose a significant part of their wealth and
savings...The slowing economy will lead many small businesses
and individuals to go bankrupt... [Working Paper The U.S.
Economy Risks and Strategies 2007-2017 and Reuters Interview]
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The worst
thing that could happen to any economy is the loss of
confidence. [Warning on the impact of the housing bubble burst,
subprime crisis and bankruptcies leading to the Economic crisis
of 2008]
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The general
economic decline cycle will bottom in 2009 and we could see
stability sometime in late 2009 or early 2010, then we will be
back to modest recovery in late 2010 or early 2011. However, the
real estate, construction and financial industries will bottom
out in 2010, the recovery could start in 2011. [On forecasting
the recovery in 2009]
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My main
concern is that the recovery was created by an accounting trick;
they took the bad assets off Wall Street and (effectively) put
them on the government's balance sheet. It is merely a
psychological trick to rebuild confidence in the financial
markets. It worked! ..Wall Street recovered, but the US tax
payers and main street businesses will have to pay for it
through higher taxes, higher interest rates, inflation or a
combination that will eat future profits and spending power,
thus hindering growth rates for a long period of time. The only
hope for a real US recovery is from the private sector, US
companies selling new innovations globally in industries such as
nano-tech, biotech, and converged media. The real economy,
Clinton's surplus and recent US wealth was built by
entrepreneurs and companies such as Apple, Google, Boeing, and
GE. The future will not be different. Only an innovation-driven
economic growth can attract foreign investments, generate enough
revenues to pay the debt and re-energize growth again. [On
the drivers of real long-term recovery in 2011]
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When you
try to predict another crisis or lack of it, you can never
underestimate the stupidity or genius of the leadership's
decisions. [On Predicting Economic Crises]
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Therefore,
in the short-term there is little risk of another crisis, but
the US leadership should not forget that global competition is
growing. The superior gap of manufacturing, services, knowledge
and innovation is diminishing. In the long-term the dollar will
eventually be replaced as the international trade and investment
currency. If they do not fix the national economic problems in
the short-term, we will all face a bigger crisis in the mid and
longer terms. Make no mistake, US will recover; it is just that
the road to recovery is rocky with potential setbacks, and we
have to pay for our mistakes like everyone else. [On the
long-term risk to the US economic problems. 2011]
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Because
there are many uncontrollable variables, no one can forecast the
future with 100% accuracy; however, by refining your investment
decision-making framework and processes and by cleaning your
information inputs, you can increase your success rate
significantly. You only need to be more right than wrong to be a
successful investor. [On investment best practices]
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I'm against
abolishing the Fed; however, I advocate for major reforms. The
solution to our economic problems does not lie in
demonizing entire banking system, but in restructuring the
global financial system to improve governance, transparency,
and accountability.
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IIM is not
a fan of expensive stimulus packages. It instead favors job
creation through funding of small businesses. The most
cost-effective and quickest method to stimulate the U.S. economy
is to support job creation through US small businesses and
innovation development. U.S. Census Bureau statistics show that
98 percent of all U.S. firms have less than 100 employees. These
27 million small businesses create over 85 percent of all new
jobs and employ over 56 percent of all private sector workers.
The focus of development programs should be innovation
development, export and employment support. This solution would
be a less of a burden on the taxpayers; it can be implemented
without too many new legislations, and would have a much faster
positive impact on the economy. [A sustainable economic recovery
policy]
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Despite
accurately forecasting the housing bubble burst and stock market
crash of 2008, the great recession of 2009 and recovery of
2010-2011, we advise investors against investing based on our
forecasts. Unlike physics and engineering that are based on
physical laws, economic forecasting is inherently uncertain or
unreliable. All of our opinions are at best guesstimates that
can and do change after a day, a week, a month, or a year. The
main problem with economic forecasting is that the global
economy is a complex, dynamic networked system and is a product
of human psychology (and emotions). One major natural event or
political decision can accelerate or delay a cascade of events
and changes the entire forecast in the short-term or long-term.
Our forecasting model is not perfect and we do make errors.
Still, our goal is to be more accurate and less wrong. [On the
accuracy of economic forecasting,]
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The economic and political polarity of raising or reducing
taxes, free trade vs. trade war, economic expansion and
contraction cycles, and other factors can and do change our
forecasts. We call it "Polarity Forecasting",
which includes interest rate polarity, taxation polarity,
stock market polarity and so on; that is we attempt to
forecast the polarity frequency and duration of interest
rate and the stock market value, as more likely than not, to
rise and decline over the long-term.
On States'
Socioeconomic Integrity Theory
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The
integrity of states is ruled by the socioeconomic integrity (and
wellbeing) theory. The degree of the stability of any social
system is proportional to the degree of its economic growth and
vice versa. Stated differently, the risk to national integrity
increases proportionally to the country's economic decline. When
the members of a sociopolitical system share the same economic
interests and the existing system produces enough economic
opportunities to meet the needs of the members, they are likely
to tolerate existing differences and work together towards
shared benefits. On the other hand, when the system fails to
produce enough economic opportunities over a long period of
time, the members of the system are likely to compete more
aggressively for existing resources, causing divisions among the
members to grow stronger. The degree of social cohesiveness will
diminish and divisions could take different forms such as
ethnic, religious and geographic conflicts and at times class
warfare or civil wars. If not managed properly, such
sociopolitical systems can become dysfunctional. If the
dysfunction is left untreated, at a certain point it will take
more energy to fix the system than to let it collapse.
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Adversity
is the enemy of diversity - a prolonged economic hardship can
result in a more intense competition for resources among various
demographics, leading to resentment toward unfair distribution
of power and wealth; if not addressed early and properly, this
can lead to stress on national unity, unrest and even civil
conflict. History teaches us that people from different
religions and ethnic groups can be united around one shared
economic goal equality and prosperity for all. We saw that in
the rise of the communist USSR. When the economic policies of
the USSR failed, ethnic and national divisions took the
forefront and the USSR was dissolved. That can happen to the US.
If we are hit hard enough by hyperinflation and currency
collapse. How the divisions evolve and what forms they will take
depend on the type and speed of the government's reaction. It is
too early to foresee such events. However, it is important to
note that no country is above the socioeconomic laws, the US
included.
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Most people
think that the current Middle East uprising is ignited by
democratic aspirations. In my opinion, it was ignited by the
high unemployment rate meeting food inflation. Democratic
uprisings and civil unrest manifest the underlying economic
distress. In the West, the economic pressure can be dissipated
via elections and the democratic change of governments. The
unrest did not start in the Middle East and will not end there.
The spread of the unrest is determined by the rate of economic
decline, unemployment and inflation in each country. Just look
at what happened in Greece - we saw civil unrest, similar
violent protests happened in the UK by students in response to
the proposal of the government to increase tuitions. These
events are simply the result of the global financial crisis and
the long-term accumulation of wrong economic policies. China and
Asia will have to act to prevent the emerging financial bubbles.
(Despite the challenges) the global economy will overcome these
challenges. [Wall Street Italy - A European Perspective on
Global Economic Crisis and Recovery.]
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Religions
taught me that the love of money is the root of all evil. After
studying economics, I discovered that scarcity is the root
of all evil. Socioeconomic policies should focus on fighting
scarcity, not growth. To prevent future domestic and
international conflicts, economists should design an economic
system that allows open access and growth for all. Violent
conflicts are almost always the result of unfair structural
barriers erected in favor of one group at the expense of other
groups. The current economic systems are not designed to prevent
civil or international conflicts, they are more designed to
accumulate and gain power. If you want world peace, you need to
restructure the global monetary and economic systems from a
centralized hierarchal order to a more peer-to-peer network
design. Blockchain technology can help with that.
On Virtuous and
Vicious Economic Cycles Theory
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Over the
long-term, if government revenues continue to be more than
expenditures (surplus), then the economic health of the country
improves, because the government can afford to invest in
development projects such as research and development, education
and infrastructure. With more income, the government can also
afford taxes reduction, thereby increasing corporate profits and
attracting more foreign investors, resulting in more economic
activities, creating more jobs and enlarging consumer spending
and government revenues despite income tax cuts. It is what I
call a virtuous economic cycle.
Over the long-term, if
government revenues continue to be less than the expenditures
(deficit), then the economic health of the country worsens,
resulting in higher accumulated debt. An increasing
government debt will result in higher interest payments, and
less money available for socioeconomic development. To pay for
the debt, the government will have to raise taxes, which will
reduce the competitive position of the country in the global
economy and chase investors away resulting in less economic
activities and more job losses. In order to avoid higher
unemployment rate and social instability, the government would
have to raise more debt to fund spending on welfare resulting in
raising the interest rate which will increase the cost of money,
reduce corporate profits and slow economic investments,
resulting in more job losses and reduced government revenues,
despite income tax increase. It is what I call a vicious
economic cycle.
On Information
and Education
- In the Internet Age, Information
is Cheap. Education is Expensive
- The
current executive education models do not bridge the critical
knowledge-implementation gap. There is a need for a more
effective and efficient training model that not only develops
the general managerial knowledge, but also directly works on
solving company-specific business problems and delivers
actionable solutions [ On Executive Education Best Practices]
- I found
that success comes from a few key decision-making models and
management best practices. Everything else is noise. In the
information age, the major challenge is not the lack of
information, but rather information overload. Success is not
about how much data you have; it is about what and how you use
the data to make successful decisions. [On Information and
Decision Making]
- Most
current global academic and accreditation systems of management
education require a major update in content, delivery and
evaluation methods. Although the need to establish a set of
minimum educational standards is justified, in our experience
the current accreditation systems are highly bureaucratic,
outdated, anti-competitive and inhibit innovation and
advancement. The Institute's research revealed that spending two
to three years in a traditional MBA program is becoming more
costly and less relevant.
On Strategy
- The CEO's key challenge in formulating and executing the right strategy is
not in finding the right answers to the tough questions, the
challenge is in asking the right questions [On how to Evaluate a
CEO]
- Sustaining
high business performance is a product of continuous strategic
alignment [CEO strategy]
- The ways
in which senior executives allocate, manage and position their
new digital assets and knowledge resources will have a strong
bearing on the firm's ability to compete successfully in today's global digital economy. [Conference paper]
- Complexity
is a sign of intelligence. Simplicity is a sign of wisdom [CEO
strategy]
On
Globalization
- Knowledge
networks will revolutionize the global economy. They will change
the way we think, learn and work. The prosperity of a nation and
its people will be determined to a large degree by how well they
can leverage the global knowledge networks to develop their
resources, collaborate, innovate, and market their products and
services [On knowledge networks and globalization strategy]
On Economic Forecasting and Investing
- Most
economists and financial analysts are statisticians or
quantitative analysts, with little or no real-life business
experience. Few have strong knowledge of the business drivers
and qualitative forces that drive investment and operational
decisions. Without that knowledge, one cannot accurately assess
the performance of assets and markets. [On investment best
practices]
- Forget
about whose advice you buy. Be careful what advice you buy, mine
included. When you decide to buy an advice, buy it based on its
merit not on the source. That is the ABC of critical thinking.
[On investing]
- A lot of
investors follow investment gurus and leading investment banks.
Investment by imitation is not an investment strategy. [On
common investment errors]
- The poor
work to make money for the rich; the middle-class work to make
money for themselves; and the rich make money from the work of
the poor and the middle-class.
On Investment Management
- Success in
investing boils down to one thing - decision-making. Wrong
decisions are based on lack of information and misinformation or
wrong decision models. Making the right investment decision
requires a detailed set of information about macro and
microeconomics conditions, markets, sectors, industries,
companies, qualitative and quantitative analysis, fundamental
and technical analysis, behavioral finance and risk management.
[On the science and art of investing]
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Unfortunately, a substantial part of the information available
in the media is just noise and the advice of many analysts is
based on either incomplete decision-making framework, or is
contaminated with biases and misinformation. We learned that the
ability to distinguish between valid and invalid assumptions,
more important vs. less important information, and to control
the emotions of fear and greed during the ups and downs of
markets is key to the success of an investor. [On the science
and art of investing]
- One reason
that led to the spike in gold prices over the past two years is
that the central banks of countries such as China, Russia and
India, have all increased gold as a component of their foreign
exchange reserves. Add to that the consumer and investment
demands driven by gold traders and the media blitz exaggerating
the impact of the crises and prophesying the demise of the US
dollar. To me, gold belongs with a class of speculative
investments and should be kept to a minimum in long-term
investment portfolios. This statement is valid until the world
adopts gold as the main component of a new international
currency. [On the Gold Bubble of 2011]
- Let's say
that you invested in a stock and the stock value gained 50% in
the following year (your wealth and happiness investment
increased by 50%). It would be pre-mature to conclude that you
are a genius and your investment formula is accurate. This
explains why most investors, including professionals, lose in
the stock market. Any decision model in a hyper-dynamic
(continuously and fast changing) environment needs at least 10
years of performance data to draw a reliable conclusion on what
is the best investment formula or decision-making model for
long-term investment.
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The truth is that when people
invest on Wall Street, they are essentially making bets about
the future. No one has a crystal ball, including, yours truly.
It is not wrong to make bets on the future value of stocks or
other assets, as long as you realize that they are bets.
Informed bets are better than uninformed bets. Consideration of
opposing bearish or bullish information enables smarter bets.
Risk management is critical.
-
Stock market asset valuation is a
tricky business. A significant portion of the value of an asset
depends on external variables and events; these events are
usually amplified by media and investors emotions. Some stock
market investors and traders use macroeconomic forecasts for
their investing activities. It is important not to forget that
the stock market is a collective socioeconomic being with
continually changing and complex layers, players and moods. It
would serve investors not to consider any internal (company) or
external (economic) forecast as permanent, but rather a snapshot
with a continuous update to reflect new forces, players, and the
changes they bring to the asset value.
-
It is more difficult to
consistently predict the next market move with high-accuracy,
but it's easier to predict the prospect of a healthy and
profitable company in favorable macroeconomic and microeconomic
trends, even in tough stock market conditions. Buying the stocks
of such companies early or during a stock market correction can
make investors richer, but jumping all in, indiscriminately is a
risky move. Cautious investing and diversification might cause
investors to miss on several high-growth opportunities, but at
the same time, it will preserve the investors money and peace of
mind. In general, over the long-term, the slowly but surely
informed selective investment bets beat betting all the chips on
the gambling table of the ups and downs of the stock market.
On Government Management Best
Practices
On CEO Leadership
- It is not
possible to have a politics-free organization. The desire for
power and control is part of human nature. Successful business
leaders know how to leverage organizational politics by setting
performance-oriented instead of resources-oriented political
rewards. [On political leadership]
- A CEO's
performance is as good as the performance of his middle managers
[On leading from the middle vs. leading from the top]
- Leadership
excellence requires a balanced mix of paradoxes. Leaders need to
be visionary yet practical, teachers yet learners, and believers
yet open-minded. [On leadership characteristics]
- The
leadership team is the most important asset of the company and
can be its worst liability [On dysfunctional leadership]
- In the
desert, a camel is better than a horse. [On situational
leadership: speed vs. stamina]
- I
discovered that anything that can go right will go right! The
wrong cannot last forever. I d like to think of it as the
Anti-Murphy's Law [On Optimism and Leadership Perspective]
-
There is a need for an integrated
system, which includes best practices, tools and processes, to
ensure succession planning and performance development of the
management talent pipeline at all managerial levels, not only at
the CEO level. [On Board Governance]
-
Even
fast-growing and profitable companies can develop bad internal
politics and unproductive work habits that will eventually lead
to declining performance. [On Workplace Politics]
- A
continuous supply of high performance executive talent is
probably the only sustainable competitive advantage in today's global marketplace. [On Leadership as Strategic Competitive
Advantage]
- Since the
leadership team can be the firm's most valuable asset or its
worst liability, leadership development should be a core
business management process sponsored by the CEO, overseen by
the board of directors, and facilitated by the HR department. [
On Leadership and Human Capital]
-
Leadership
is the most important competitive advantage of a company, not
technology, finance, operations or anything else. Leadership
formulates the company's business strategy and builds its
resources, including its people, finances and operations. [On
Leadership Development]
-
Companies
that fall short on managing leadership succession and
development end up facing performance challenges due to market
changes and talent attrition. Those firms will be forced to hire
untested external talent or promote internal staff with an
inadequate skill set [On Succession Planning]
On Gross
National Wellbeing (GNW) Policies
- Why choose
happiness as a subject for economic research? The answer is
simple: mental and emotional well-being of citizens improves
their performance and broadens the intellectual, physical and
social resources of a nation. [On Gross National Happiness
(GNH)]
- Unless you
provide them [economists] with the framework to manage and track
the well-being and happiness of their people they re not going
to do anything about it.
- The role
of government should shift from managing economic growth to
socioeconomic development. American public policy should shift
its focus from the standard of living to the quality of life and
material possessions to well-being (physical, mental, and
material) [On Gross National Happiness (GNH)]
-
Equal
opportunity is not truly equal until all U.S. populations have
equal access to the same quality of education and equitable
development programs.
-
If one
googles antidepessants he gets about six million pages. If he
does the same for "depression prevention" you will get less than
50 thousand. If you google "happiness education" you will get
less than 500 results! Even when using different search phrases,
the results are more focused on treatment than prevention. Many
mild to moderate depression cases can be eliminated or at least
greatly helped with personal life management and happiness
education The Institute recommends that happiness education
starts in schools by providing basic social education in applied
formats to personal and relationship management including basic
psychology, self-awareness, leadership development,
communication skills, conflict resolution, and basic sociology
(social contracts and civil duties).
-
Governments have metrics to monitor your money. Do they use a
metric to measure the citizens wellbeing?! [On Gross National
Wellbeing and Happiness (GNW / GNH) and Socioeconomic
development policies]
- "The
pursuit of happiness" is an American myth. The ideologies and
governments of this century that promised happiness, have left
people with more material possessions, but less psychological
well-being. Many of the citizens are emotionally bankrupt and
unhappy. The demands of life in our current socioeconomic system
require that we keep running and running with little or no
breaks....Like their parents, most young professionals will
drift through life racing for the "American Dream", go through
very expensive trial-and-error lessons and struggle to achieve
happiness and fulfillment. [On social well-being the need for
education reforms]
-
To be
objective, it is not entirely the fault of the government. More
has changed in the last decade technologically, culturally,
politically and economically than the entire past century. The
degree and speed of change has posed enormous challenges for
countries, organizations and their people.
-
One of the
important applications of the gross national wellbeing (GNW)
solution is for public investments to measure the strategic
wellbeing return on investment in public policies and projects.
We call those metrics ROW (Return on Wellbeing) or Return on
Happiness (ROH) instead of the traditional ROI (Return on
Investment). In our opinion, researchers need at least 10 and
preferably 15 years of performance data to make reliable
conclusions on ranking and complex multidimensional policy
issues. They would also need to study the ranking in
relationship to major events and policy changes, as well as
study the happiness in different demographic groupings. Ranking
countries without such contextual information or without
sufficient data can result in misleading and harmful
conclusions.
-
The truth
is, because happiness science is new and we are all learning.
Research and professional integrity demands that any author that
publishes country rankings should disclose the limitations,
reliability of their data, methodology and conclusions of such
ranking.
-
Our
definition of individual (and collective) happiness and
wellbeing is that they are a product of an internalized formula
interacting with an external dynamic socioeconomic system.
-
Your
wellbeing (subjective and objective quality of your life) is a
product of the individual and collective decision-making model
(in democratic societies) and in relationship to different
living environmental resources and socioeconomic conditions.
Many times, the return on investment (life actions) depends on
external forces of the socioeconomic system and their dynamic
relationships to your actions.
-
Wellbeing
is both physical (objective) and mental (subjective). Happiness
is mental (subjective). In our opinion they are both
interconnected and affect each other, you cannot have one
without the other. Chronic stress, anxiety and/or depression can
lead to behavioral dysfunction and decreased state of physical
and social wellbeing and vice versa. This applies to both
individuals and groups (families, organizations, communities,
and countries). Our research since 1998 showed that certain
demographic groups and even countries can collectively (on
aggregate) be happier, healthier or more stressed and depressed.
For example, prolonged conditions of economic adversity,
discrimination, civil conflict or wars can result in thinking
and behavioral dysfunction that will negatively impact their
socioeconomic, political development and progress. Therefore,
our proposal to integrate both objective and subjective measures
was considered essential to changing socioeconomic development
and government policies.
-
Another
research flaw missed by many happiness and wellbeing studies and
rankings is the psychological and social factors of adaptation
(or getting used to difficult conditions). This factor is not
addressed in any of the surveys we looked at. The popular
subjective wellbeing surveys are full of such bias. This
adaptation bias of self-reported happiness or satisfaction with
quality of life is great for survival and social cohesiveness,
but bad for researchers looking to quantify the answers
objectively. It requires significant changes in research
questions, methods and design.
-
For such
critical global (happiness ranking) initiatives, accuracy
is more important than PR (public relations).
-
On an
individual level, happiness is a product of an internal personal
formula interacting with a dynamic socioeconomic system. It
would be counter-productive to judge your wellbeing based on
your happiness for a short period such as last month or last
year, alone. Happiness and wellbeing cannot be measured without
long-term contextual data. Sometimes short-term happiness can be
harmful to your long-term wellbeing (e.g. drugs, alcohol,
gambling winnings, etc.). Sometimes short-term stress can be
useful for your long-term wellbeing (e.g. going to school and
passing exams, changing a job, or a city). Your investment in
learning adapting or managing the changes might turn out to be
net positive or negative to your subjective (happiness) and
objective (physical) wellbeing.
-
In short,
your choices of college education, work, marriage, friends,
political party and other activities cannot be meaningfully
measured in a snap shot in time. Researchers need to measure
them over a decade or two.
-
For us
wellbeing and happiness are metrics used to measure progress
(change or adaptation) in relationship to the external living
environment. Seen this way, it is a more accurate measure of
wellbeing and happiness than using a collection of isolated
snapshots of self-reported feelings collected over a day, month,
or a year.
-
On a
collective happiness level, happiness and wellbeing are a
product of the interaction of the unifying (or common) belief
system and collective actions (such as majority voting) with the
socioeconomic conditions of that group (e.g. a country). Take an
example of a debt-driven national economic growth policy it will
let a group of people happy, and it might be necessary to
overcome short-term suffering of labor layoffs, but if the debt
is too high and the debt was used for consumer activity instead
of investment, then there will come a period of austerity,
suffering, or loss of wealth through inflation to service the
debt. The net effect of happiness from one year to another can
be positive, but in the long-term, it can be disastrous. Many
developing countries spend decades suffering to try to get out
of debt used for unprofitable public spending. We had first-hand
experience in several poor and developing countries in Europe,
Latin America, Africa and Middle East who are involved in
similar vicious cycles of borrow, spend, suffer, recover,
borrow, spend, suffer, and repeat. Superficial snapshot ranking
of people's happiness without detailed and proper analysis of
context, causes and effects, internal and external forces
interaction can be more harmful than helpful.
On Economic Policies
- Lack of
regulation is as bad as over-regulation. Governments should not
regulate free market choices, instead they should regulate to
maximize accountability, transparency, and the protection of
consumers and investors against abuse of power, conflict of
interest, and negligence; anything else can become
counterproductive to economic growth. [On regulation debate]
- Countries
that quit producing real products, spend more than they produce,
lag in education, burden their middle class with higher taxes,
and continue to import billions from other countries, bail out
failed businesses and reward bad behavior, investing in wars
instead of education, will eventually lose their leadership and
wealth. [On US bad economic policies]
- Any
economy that is built on uncontrolled debt will eventually
crash. [On US Economy Crisis]
On the New World Order, Crises and
Conflicts
- After the
collapse of the USSR, the US became the world's sole superpower
both, militarily and economically. The mistakes of our political
elites led us to where we are today. I do believe that we will
recover from the next crisis too. The US will not turn into a
third world country or a poor nation; however it is unlikely
that we will not be the only superpower or be the super-rich
country. Wealth is being distributed globally and the world is
becoming multi-polar. This is evident by the expansion of G-7 to
G-20. In the next 7-10 years, if the US macroeconomic trends
remain in the same direction, while other countries are growing
in power and wealth, we will lose our leadership. We will become
like the UK, an influential political and economic player but
not the sole super power or the global economic empire it used
to be. This is true for all past and future powers, the gap of
knowledge, wealth, development and power between nations is
reducing and the reign of super powers is shortening. Just look
at the history of the Roman, Islamic, Russian and British
empires, they are getting shorter. In business and economics,
the same cycle applies; Look at Ford, IBM, Nokia, and others
blue chips, the cycle of change is becoming faster. There is an
increased rate of trade and knowledge exchange, spread of
innovation, industrialization and entrepreneurial cultures
around the world; the net result is more distribution of wealth,
reduction in power and wealth gaps between the US and rest of
the world and a natural change of the world order. [On the
decline of the US Superpower 2011]
- To
understand what is happening (Middle East civil unrests and
conflicts) and what is going to happen you need to look at
inflation as a force of pressure. If the socioeconomic system of
a country is open and democratic, the pressure will dissipate
through the elections and peaceful change of government. On the
other hand, if the system is closed, it might be able to contain
the pressure for a while, but the pressure will build up with
time and at a certain point, it will exceed the strength of the
system causing it to crack. We saw it in Tunisia, Egypt and
other countries before them. In other nations, this pressure
release may take other forms such as racial, ethnic, or
religious conflicts. Rulers who learn from history and create a
socioeconomic system that is open will achieve stability and
continuity. Those who fight against the socioeconomic laws may
win some battles in the short-term, but they will lose the war.
From a global perspective, what is happening today is simply
part of the process of moving towards the new world order and
part of the shift of power from the West to the East. The Middle
East is at the center of that change.
- In the US
we had our share of civil conflicts driven by economic forces.
The European immigrants brought slaves from Africa to use as
cheap labor for farming the land. The color of their skin was
only a rationalization for the continuation of the slavery
system. All the segregation and discrimination rules against the
blacks at that time were made to preserve the existing economic
system and the interest of its beneficiaries. Although history
books attribute the American Civil War to states and civil
rights, the driving force behind the war was the conflict of
economic interests. American rulers learned their lessons early
on and created a socioeconomic system that allowed a free
distribution of wealth and power. Today, we have a black
president, we have more people leave their parents economic
class and become richer regardless of their religious, ethnic or
national background. Despite having more diversity than any
other nation, we still have more stable national politics. If
our elites try to limit the openness of the socioeconomic
system, the system will be corrected in any number of forms
including civic unrest. When Bush's administration invaded Iraq
and bailed out Wall Street, the people brought in Obama. When
Obama bailed out Wall Street again and considered raising the
tax on the people, the people brought the Tea Party into power
and the ruling party lost control of the Congress. Corrections
are made via peaceful elections.
- All
conflicts are driven by economic interests. It is essentially
about the control of resources. Religion, ideology,
nationalism, ethnicities, freedom and other slogans are only
tools to mobilize support to win over the opponents and gain
more control.
- The
inflationary pressure forces and socioeconomic laws are also
applicable to international relations. The historical crusades
against Muslim lands, the colonization of Spain by the Muslim
Moors and India by the British were all driven by economic
interests, despite the advertised reasons that were used to
mobilize their armies at the time. The invasion of Iraq was not
about spreading democracy or weapons of mass destruction, it was
about the oil. Iraq has one of the world's largest proven oil
reserves. Oil is a strategic US economic interest, especially
with the rise of China and India, and the rise of the global
demand for energy resources.
:::
Related Pages:
For bio and
media information, please visit Med Jones' Bio
page
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Contact
Information:
- For speaking and consulting
engagements, please contact the
International Institute of Management
- Please note that Mr. Jones is
available for media interviews related to happiness economics,
economic development and well-being, he does not give economic
forecasting or investment related interviews. For investment
think tank services, please contact the Institute.
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